It is important to note that neither the baseline year (1990) emissions nor the targets (for 2020 for example) change. What the projection looks like depends on what the underlying category projections look like and how they have been updated since the last inventory. Similarly, we estimate future GHG emissions by projecting each category of emissions separately, and then combine individual category projections to produce an overall GHG projection. 0% indicates GHG emissions less than 1% of total. Figure 2 shows estimated 2012 emissions for the San Diego region by category.įigure 2 San Diego regional greenhouse gas emissions 2012. For the overall inventory in any year, we estimate emissions from each category separately and then add them up to get an overall emission value for that year. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arise from 14 categories in our region. Given the potential for confusion around projected GHG emissions levels, it is important to know what lies beneath the projection.ĭependence of GHG Emissions Projections on State Forecasts The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines a “business-as-usual” baseline case as the level of emissions that would result if future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies take place. These projections may be called a “business-as-usual” (BAU), baseline or a base case projection. In this case, not only the effects of the existing 33% RPS but also the potential effects of the Governor’s Executive Order B-30-15 ( ) with the goal of reaching 50% RPS would be included. Using the example above, such a projection would include the effects of the RPS in any future year.Ĭ) Based on actual emissions to date and then projected to include the future effects of energy and GHG-related implemented and planned. Another example would be if a projection that starts in 2012 in California but does not include the future effects of the Renewables Portfolio Standard, RPS ( ).ī) Based on actual emissions to date and projected to include the future effects of the policies in place in the starting year. This is the case in the projection shown in Figure 1, which starts in 2008.
In this case, the future effects of existing policy affecting energy or greenhouse gases are not considered. Projections can be calculated in at least three different ways:Ī) Based on actual emissions to date and projected using historical trend analysis and/or economic and demographic forecasts. There are several approaches to projecting emissions, which can lead to confusion regarding terminology and meaning of projections. The start year of the projection is the one with actual data and is usually called the baseline year. According to this projection, we would have needed to avoid about 14 million metric tons CO2e in 2020 to achieve the 1990 level.įigure 1 San Diego region’s greenhouse gas emissions trends and 2008 BAU projection Figure 1 shows the regional GHG emissions and a projection made in 2008 based on economic and demographic forecasts of the region (see San Diego County Greenhouse Gas Inventory September 2008 at ). To assess whether the policies we are enacting and implementing today can hope to achieve this target, we need a projection that tells us where we would be without these policies. For example, if we apply California’s AB32 target to the San Diego region, we would have to achieve the 1990 GHG emissions level (approximately 29 million metric tons CO2e) in 2020. "Business as usual" is a phrase is frequently used in climate change studies to warn of the dangers of not implementing changes in order to prevent the world from warming further.Projecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important because it helps us to assess how much the energy and GHG policies in place help to achieve targets set by law. The maintenance of BAU is the primary goal of business continuity planning (BCP).
BAU may also stand in contradistinction to external events which may have the effect of unsettling or distracting those inside an organisation.
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